When Will the U.S. Real Estate Market Hit Bottom?
While clearly no one has a crystal ball with definitive answers there does seem to be some general focus around:
1) The market will hit bottom when the psychology of homebuyers becomes positive, optimism improves, and people are willing to stick their necks out again. While some areas such as New York are on a decline, clearing other harder hit areas show signs of optimism as Florida’s existing Home, Condo sales rose in February 2009 and other indications that March figures may reflect the same.
2) The market will hit bottom when employment turns around. While unemployment is clearly still a big problem the pace as definitely slowed.
3) The market will hit bottom when credit loosens and businesses can borrow for working capital, expansion, and long term plans. This is clearly an issue between banks protecting there capital during uncertain times mixed with capitalization issues with many of the major banks. All indications are this is yet to be resolved.
4) The market will hit bottom when the stock market turns around and consumers see a positive trend. While many believe the current market rally in March and April may not last, most analyst agree we are in the mist of a bottoming process and many indicators show that Americans are optimistic that despite corrections that may occur in this rally, that the market will generally have a positive grown over the course of the year.
5) Finally, the market will hit bottom when government stimulus programs begins to work. This will bring back consumer confidence, which will then reduce unemployment, re-capitalize the banks, loosen credit, and bring the stock market back.
It is obvious that all of these problems are interrelated and feed upon each other. But they are all symptoms - the outward manifestations of the problems - and not the causes or the cures. What is scary is the speed at which these symptoms appear to turn around in the pass month once people seem to have developed a sense of optimism in the market.
It seems many buyers are not waiting to find out when the real estate market will hit bottom and have begun buying.