US Real Estate Investment

NEWS



March 22nd, 2009

Rolls-Royce plc plans to open a 40,000 square feet marine service center in Galveston, Texas.

 

The Rolls-Royce Commercial Marine service center will provide repair and overhaul expertise for customers throughout the Gulf of Mexico region.

 

Expected to be operational in April and, once completed, Rolls-Royce plans to increase its personnel in the Gulf of Mexico region. Rolls-Royce invested in the location at the Port of Galveston to respond to a growing customer base and demand in the region, giving Galveston a big boost of confidence. 





February 27th, 2009

 

The latest housing data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on February 25, 2009 may look grim. It was reported that sales of existing homes fell 5.3 percent in January, to an annual rate of 4.49 million units, from a 4.74 million rate in December. It was the weakest showing since July 1997. About 45% of total sales involve distressed property transactions, including foreclosures. 

The median sales price tumbled to $170,300 from $199,800 a year earlier and $175,700 in December 2008. In other words, the existing home sales has fell to the lowest level in 12 years and prices are at now near six-year lows.

 

However, there is a glimpse of hope buried amongst these data. The over-supply inventory of existing homes on the market is roughly 1 million. But this supply has now been in decline for several consecutives months. The number of existing homes for sale has decreased by 800,000 units from December 2008 to Jan 2009. The NAR estimated it will take 9.6 months to sell the current inventory.

 

It is easy to see that when the sales stabilize, there will be fewer house available to purchase, which will help housing prices to solidify and hasten the pace of turnaround in the US housing market and in the economy.

 

Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist stated “The drop in total inventory is an encouraging sign because the number of homes has declined steadily since peaking in July 2008, and inventory is at the lowest level in two years.”

 

Potential investor should watch out closely for this new equilibrium of supply and demand. In the near future, the fundamentals of supply and demand will work itself out and stabilizes the US real estate markets again.

 





February 18th, 2009

President Obama has just unveiled his much-anticipated plan on Wednesday to fight the US real estate crisis. As much as $275 billion will be pledged to help stem a wave of foreclosures sweeping the country.

 

The Mortgage Bankers Association previously reported at the end of 2008, just over 9 percent of all homes loans in the United States were in arrears or already in foreclosure. However Credit Suisse estimated 16 percent of all households with mortgages could fall into foreclosure by 2012.

 

 The $275 billion US real estate aid plan includes $50 billion from funds already committed in the financial sector bailout. Part of the funds will be set for refinancing traditional mortgages for up to 5 million homeowners who now are close to owing more than their homes are worth.  Within the fund, $75 billion will be set to reduce monthly payments for 3 to 4 million homeowners who are “stuck in sub-prime mortgages they can’t afford as a result of skyrocketing interest rates or personal misfortune”, Obama said.

 

On the other hand, the plan aims to increase confidence in mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac through Treasury funding to ensure the strength and security of the mortgage market and to help maintain mortgage affordability.  The Treasury will increase its preferred stock purchase agreements with the two companies to 200 billion each from 100 billion. It also outlines the plan to raise the limit on the size of the mortgage portfolios the two companies can hold by $850 billion to $900 billion each, along with a corresponding increase in their allowable debt outstanding.

 

Obama’s noted, “By making these investments in foreclosure-prevention today, we will save ourselves the cost of foreclosure tomorrow – costs borne not just by families with troubled loans, but by their neighbors and communities and by our economy as a whole.”





February 16th, 2009

According to a report by the National Associations of Realtors (NAR) on Feb 12, 2009, the median price of single-family home resale in 88 percent of the United States’ metropolitan areas trended down in the fourth quarter 2008 from a year earlier. 45 percent of the transactions in this quarter were distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, which lead to the decline in the median price. The most significant price drop occurred in Florida, Michigan, California and Arizona.

 

Nationally, the median price for single-family homes dropped 12.4percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter. Regionally, the median home prices dropped 25.1 percent in the West, 10.6 percent in the Midwest and 7.5 percent in the South and 4.7percent in the Northeast.

 

NAR President Charles McMillian pointed out “distressed home sales have risen from about 38 percent of transactions in the third quarter, meaning people are responding to discounted prices and are slowly absorbing the excess inventory. Buyers clearly see value in today’s pricing.”

 

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist reported the largest gain in sales volume for the fourth quarter was in Nevada, up 133.7 percent, followed by California, rose 84.7 percent, Arizona, up 42.6 percent and Florida with a 12.5 percent increase.  This is a clear pattern that strong sales gain in lower price homes occurs in areas with extreme price declines resulting from foreclosures.

 

In the condo sector, the strongest condo price increases in this quarter were in the Dallas – Fort Worth – Arlington in Texas, up 14.1 percent, followed by Toledo, Ohio, up 11.4 percent compared to fourth quarter in 2007.

 

Yun noted despite the market being clearly depressed by job losses and consumer concerns about the economy, the much anticipated housing provisions in the economic stimulus package may spur some buying interest for the critical spring home buying season.





February 14th, 2009

A survey by Pew Research Center’s Social and Demographic Trends project in October 2008 shows Denver, San Diego and Seattle as the top three cities most respondents would like to live. Orlando Florida, Tampa Florida ties for fourth place with San Francisco California. Detroit, Cleveland and Cincinnati at the bottom of the ranking.

 

Major findings include:

 

  • Ideal community type:

            30% small town

            25% suburb

            23% city

            21% rural area

  • Young adults would rather live in New York and Los Angeles        
  • More men than women want to live in Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Republicans prefer Phoenix, Arizona
  • Democrats would rather live in San Francisco, California
  • Seven of the top ten favorite cities are in the West and the other three are in the South     
  • More than 60% of Americans prefer to live in a hot-weather over a cold-weather climate
  • Almost half of those surveyed would rather live in a different community than there current home.
  • 60 % rate their current communities as excellent or very good.       





February 13th, 2009

John A. Courson, President and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) issued a statement on February 10, 2009 in response to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s announcement on the administration’s plan to help recapitalize the banking system and aid struggling US Real Estate.

 

Mr. Courson highlighted two major components of Geithner’s plan. First, efforts will be made to help homeowners who are having difficulty making their mortgage payments.  Stemming the tide of foreclosures is a crucial part of stabilizing both the housing market and the overall economy. Mortgage Banker Association supports Treasury’s goal of bring all stakeholders together around a uniform and workable standard for modifying loans to help troubled homeowners of US real estate achieve an affordable monthly mortgage payment.

 

The second component consists of a multi-pronged approach to restart the stalled credit markets and encourage financial institutions to start lending again. Mr. Courson is pleased the expansion of the TALF to specifically include commercial mortgage-backed securities. The US Mortgage Banker Association hopes the program will contain support for both new and existing assets including private label residential mortgage-backed securities.

 

The US Mortgage Banker Association will continue to work with the administration, banking regulators and Congress to ensure the plan is quickly implemented and has its maximum intended effect.





February 4th, 2009

The latest real estate data shown that mortgage applications rose in the last week of January, reflecting a jump in demand for home refinancing even as interest rates rose to their highest levels since early December. The Mortgage Bankers Association indicated its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application increased 8.6 percent for the last week of January from the previous week.

 

The National Association of Realtor also reported its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in December, surged 6.4%. The first increase since August, 2008.





January 12th, 2009

Ever dreamed of owning a vacation home in Florida? The Globe and Mail interviews Harold Green of Central Showplace about he opportunities available for owning a vacation home in Florida and other US sunbelt homes. 
 

“Many people who go there one or two weeks a year think they know the market,” Mr. Green says. “Bottom line, they do not. Owning and caring for a second home in Florida is much more complicated than owning a condo in Toronto.

 

The best investment in Florida is not necessarily the cheapest or the most discounted. 

 

View the full article at Globe and Mail





December 20th, 2008

The Feds cut its benchmark lending rate to historic lows Tuesday and promising to combat the U.S. recession head-on and aggressively. By doing so the Federal Reserve served notice that more unconventional actions probably are ahead as it fights to reverse the nation’s economic downturn.

 

The Fed pushed its rate from an already low 1 percent to a target range of 0 to 0.25 percent. This is lowest point ever for the target rate, which banks charge each other for overnight loans. The funds rate affects the rate for a wide range of loans in the U.S. economy.

 

In a statement, Federal Open Market Committee said: “The outlook for economic activity has weakened further … the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability.”

 

In a step to boost the housing market, the central bank also has been purchasing pooled mortgages-called mortgage-backed securities-and debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fed officials said that efforts to purchase mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were being ramped up. Experts say, this should have a visible effect on the housing market in the months to come.

 

The good news this week was the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation fell in November. The BLS said that consumer prices fell 1.7%, the second straight month with a record decline in inflation. On a year-over-year basis, consumer inflation rose 1.1% from November 2007 to last month.

 





December 13th, 2008

Not too long ago, many real estate speculators made a bundle of money through quick purchases and sales. Speculators and their followers were snapping up real estate without truly analyzing the market and forecasting changes. Then came the sub-prime crisis..

 

According to an article published on the Wall Street Journal a week ago, most Americans still see real estate as their best shot at wealth despite the current economic downturn. In October 2008, Zillow.com conducted a survey of 2000 adults and 61% believed that the value of their home would either remain level or rise over the next six months. Another survey of more than 1000 homeowners sponsored by Realogy Corp., found that 91% thought that owning a home was the best long-term investment they could make. An online survey of 5000 people commissioned by Citigroup found that only 32% believed it was a good time to invest in stocks, (One must keep in mind that Nasdaq has declined over 78% since its peak at the internet bubble and many stocks are trading below their cash value) - but 51% surveyed said it was a good time to buy a home.

 

In the same week, it was announced that the November payroll decline of 533,000 was enormous and biggest since December 1974.  Some economist even predicted that the fourth quarter contraction in GDP could hit 8%., which is 0.2% more sever than the 1980 recession.

 

In this mix of bullish consumer confidence and bearish economic news, where should investors head?  To real estate investors; research and analysis of the fundamentals must be performed and followed diligently.  Many economists agree that fundamentals data such as immigration, birth rates, size and nature of households are difficult to predict on the long term basis, but it is not difficult to follow the trails of income and employment growth as well as increase in immigration rate to the next “hot” city with potential growth.

 

The same article quoted William Frey, a demographer and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, Washington, says that young people and immigrants are likely to flow to Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Nevada, Arizona and more affordable interior parts of California.

 

Another researching firm, Newland Communities LLC based in San Diego named Washington DC, Raleigh and Charlotte, North Carolina, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and Las Vegas as their top cities for growth potential.

 

For someone who are interested in taking advantage of the down market for the purpose of self enjoyment, second home investment, rental income investment; the above areas may be worth a closer investigation. Cities with low growth and falling populations must be avoided.

 

The real estate market is inevitably cyclical in nature. The market has seen its recent peak and has fallen hard to its bottom (?).  At these conditions, and with a long term perspective in mind, the returns generated from tax deductions, rent, amortization, and property appreciation increases.  After all, investing in properties with great potential in a down market is definitely wiser than buying and “chasing” the market when it is over inflated.

 





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